Navigating Uncertainty: Faith and Decision Making in an Ambiguous World
Isaac Megbolugbe
February 23, 2026
Introduction
In a world marked by uncertainty, decision making can be a daunting task. Traditional approaches to decision making often rely on probability distributions and empirical data, but what happens when the future is unclear? Professor Antony Millner’s research on “Long Run Cost Benefit Rules” offers a fresh perspective on decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the importance of ambiguity aversion and variational preference. This article explores the implications of Millner’s research and its resonance with faith-driven perspectives on decision making, particularly in the context of trusting God’s sovereignty in an uncertain world.
The discussion delves into the limitations of traditional probability decision-making, the concept of ambiguity aversion, and the application of variational preference to faith-oriented decision making. Ultimately, it highlights the importance of embracing uncertainty and trusting in God’s provision and guidance, even when the future is unclear.
Key Points
– Uncertainty is a more realistic model of life than probability distributions.
– Ambiguity aversion can influence decision making under uncertainty.
– Variational preference offers a flexible approach to decision making, accommodating different attitudes towards ambiguity and uncertainty.
– Faith-driven perspectives on decision making can inform and be informed by Millner’s research.
Implications
This article aims to provide insights for individuals navigating complex decisions, policymakers evaluating long-term public projects, and anyone seeking to integrate faith and decision making in an uncertain world.
Long Run Decision Making
In recent research paper, “Long Run Cost Benefit Rules,” Professor Antony Millner of the University of California, Santa Barbara, acknowledges a reality that economists have often obscured. We live in a world of uncertainty, navigating life with a mindset of hope and perseverance, rather than relying solely on computable probability distributions that can be defined parametrically. His research enables recent advances in decision theory to inform the reality of long-term public investments, providing valuable insights for decision-making under uncertainty.
I find Professor Millner’s research illuminating, particularly in thinking about faith-driven perspectives on long-term decisions. His work resonates with the hope rooted in trusting the sovereignty of God in an uncertain world, where outcomes are shaped by complex structures and dynamic processes. This perspective encourages a deeper trust in God’s provision and guidance, even when the future is unclear.
Connection to my Work
This research aligns with my recent writings on faith, uncertainty, and the importance of trusting in God’s sovereignty at GIVA Ministries International. This perspective on uncertainty and faith informs me of my own decision-making and writing, particularly in my autobiography and thematic memoirs work.
The Meaning of Millner Research
The research paper by Professor Antony Millner explores the concept of cost-benefit analysis for long-term public projects with uncertain outcomes. The paper proposes a new approach to evaluating such projects, focusing on the long-run implications of decisions rather than short-term gains.
Key Points
– The paper examines a preference relation on risky long-run public projects, induced by a large maturity limit of expected present values.
– The relation has a variational representation related to ambiguity aversion, which is non-probabilistic in general.
– The formalism generalizes Weitzman’s “lowest possible rate” formula for long-run discount rates to a large class of stochastic economies.
– The paper characterizes features of stochastic processes that cause long-run cost-benefit rules to be non-probabilistic.
Implications
The research suggests that traditional cost-benefit analysis may not be sufficient for evaluating long-term public projects with uncertain outcomes. Instead, decision-makers should consider ambiguity aversion and the long-run implications of their decisions.
Context
The paper is relevant to policymakers and researchers involved in cost-benefit analysis, social discounting, and decision-making under uncertainty. It contributes to the literature on evaluating long-term public projects and provides new insights into the structure of cost-benefit rules.
Essence of the Research Conclusion
The conclusion of the research highlights that long-run cost-benefit rules are inherently variational and non-probabilistic, meaning they can’t be represented solely by probabilities and expectations. This challenges traditional approaches to evaluating long-term public projects.
Key Takeaways
– Long-run cost-benefit rules have a variational representation, providing a flexible foundation for studying risk and social discount rates.
– The research leverages decision theory to provide non-parametric insights into representing, comparing, and interpreting risk for long-run projects.
– A novel notion of long-run stochastic dominance is introduced, allowing for the ranking of stochastic processes based on persistence.
– Variational preferences can be interpreted as a model of ambiguity aversion, achieving a decisive ranking of long-run projects with a simpler preference relation.
Implications
The research suggests that policymakers should consider ambiguity aversion and the long-run implications of decisions when evaluating public projects, rather than relying solely on traditional probabilistic approaches.
Life and Long-Term Goals
The research suggests that when pursuing long-term goals and ambitions, it’s essential to consider the variational nature of outcomes and the ambiguity of the future. Here are some insights:
– Embracing Uncertainty: Life is inherently uncertain, and outcomes are often non-probabilistic. Embracing this uncertainty can help you adapt to changing circumstances.
– Persistence Matters: The research highlights the importance of persistence in stochastic processes. In life, persistence and resilience can be key to achieving long-term goals.
– Ambiguity Aversion: Being aware of ambiguity aversion can help you make more informed decisions, rather than relying solely on probabilistic thinking.
– Focus on the Process: Instead of fixating on specific outcomes, focus on the process and the journey. This can help you navigate uncertainty and stay motivated.
– Flexibility is Key: Be open to adjusting your goals and plans as circumstances change. Variational preferences can help you navigate complex decision-making.
Applying these Insights
– Set Flexible Goals: Set goals that are adaptable to changing circumstances.
– Cultivate Resilience: Develop persistence and resilience to navigate life’s uncertainties.
– Embrace Uncertainty: Recognize that uncertainty is inherent in life, and be open to new possibilities.
– Focus on the Journey: Prioritize the process and enjoy the journey, rather than fixating on specific outcomes.
By embracing these insights, you can cultivate a more adaptive and resilient approach to achieving your long-term goals and ambitions. The psychology literature frames these insights from economics in terms of moral mindset mentality and fortitude.
Mental Fortitude and Resilient Mindset
Mental fortitude and a resilient mindset are foundational for navigating adversity, allowing individuals to remain focused, motivated, and composed under pressure. By cultivating grit, emotional control, and a “growth” perspective, one can effectively manage stress and persevere through challenges. Key strategies for developing this strength include mindfulness, cognitive-behavioral techniques, and viewing setbacks as opportunities for learning.
Key Aspects of Mentality and Fortitude in Resilience
Definition: Mental fortitude is the capacity to endure stress and pressure while maintaining consistent performance.
Core Components: It involves the “3 C’s”Challenge (seeing obstacles as opportunities), Control (believing in one’s ability to influence outcomes), and Commitment (persistently pursuing goals).
Behavioral Indicators: Mentally tough individuals tend to avoid a victim mindset, manage impulses, and keep their composure in chaotic situations.
Developing Resilience and Perseverance
Mindset Training: Cultivating a “growth mindset” helps individuals see challenges as learning opportunities rather than failures.
Techniques: Regular, mindfulness training, cognitive-behavioral strategies, and resilience-focused interventions can cultivate a resilient mindset.
Physical Connection: Physical exercise, proper sleep, and a healthy diet are crucial for building the endurance required for mental toughness.
Action-Oriented Approach: Breaking down problems into smaller, manageable steps helps in maintaining focus and reducing anxiety.
Benefits of a Strong Mindset
Improved Performance: Increased efficiency, productivity, and, in sports, better, focus, and confidence.
Enhanced Well-being: Better, stress, management, leading, to, lower, levels, of, anxiety, and depression.
Effective Leadership: A, more, composed, approach, to, conflict, and decision-making.
Assumptions Underlying Probability Decision-Making
Probability decision-making relies on several key assumptions:
– Axioms of Probability: Probabilities are non-negative, probabilities of mutually exclusive events are additive, and the probability of the entire sample space is 1.
– Stationarity: The probability distribution remains stable over time.
– Ergodicity: The probability distribution is invariant across different realizations of the process.
– Independence: Events are independent, meaning the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of another.
– Objective Probabilities: Probabilities are objective, measurable properties of the world.
– Known Probabilities: Decision-makers have access to accurate probability distributions.
– Rational Preferences: Decision-makers have rational, consistent preferences that can be represented by a utility function.
Limitations of these Assumptions
– Uncertainty vs. Risk: Real-world decisions often involve uncertainty (unknown probabilities) rather than risk (known probabilities).
– Ambiguity: Probabilities may be ambiguous or difficult to quantify.
– Complexity: Real-world systems can be complex, making it challenging to accurately model probabilities.
Implications
These assumptions can be limiting, and decision-makers should be aware of their potential flaws when using probability decision-making frameworks.
Ambiguity Aversion
Ambiguity aversion refers to the preference for known risks over unknown risks. When faced with decisions involving uncertainty, people tend to prefer options with clear probabilities and outcomes, rather than options with uncertain or ambiguous probabilities.
Key Characteristics
– Fear of Unknowns: Ambiguity aversion arises from the discomfort of not knowing the probabilities or outcomes of a decision.
– Preference for Certainty: People tend to prefer options with known probabilities, even if the outcome is uncertain, over options with unknown probabilities.
– Avoidance of Ambiguity: Decision-makers may avoid options with ambiguous probabilities, even if they potentially offer higher rewards.
Examples
– Ellberg Paradox: People prefer a known probability of winning a prize (e.g., 50% chance) over an unknown probability (e.g., unknown chance of winning).
– Investment Decisions: Investors may prefer stocks with well-known risks over those with uncertain or ambiguous risks.
Implications
– Decision-Making Biases: Ambiguity aversion can lead to biases in decision-making, such as avoiding uncertain options or overvaluing certain outcomes.
– Economic Consequences: Ambiguity aversion can influence economic decisions, such as investment choices or insurance purchases.
Relations to the Research
The research paper discusses ambiguity aversion in the context of long-run cost-benefit analysis, highlighting how it can influence decision-making under uncertainty.
Variational Preference and Ambiguity Aversion
Variational preference is a concept in decision theory that can be interpreted as a model of ambiguity aversion. It involves evaluating decisions using a variational representation, which captures the idea that decision-makers are averse to ambiguity and uncertainty.
Key Aspects
– Acceptance of Uncertainty: Variational preference involves acknowledging and accepting uncertainty in decision-making.
– Management of Ambiguity Aversion: It provides a framework for managing ambiguity aversion, allowing decision-makers to make choices that balance risk and uncertainty.
– Flexibility: Variational preference offers a flexible approach to decision-making, accommodating different attitudes towards ambiguity and uncertainty.
Interpretation
In the context of the research paper, variational preference is seen as a natural consequence of considering long-run cost-benefit analysis, rather than a static model of ambiguity aversion. It provides a way to understand how decision-makers can make choices under uncertainty, considering the ambiguity and complexity of real-world decisions.
Applying Variational Preference to Faith-Oriented Decision Making
Yes, the concept of variational preference can be applied to faith-oriented decision making. In fact, it may offer a useful framework for navigating the complexities of decision making in a faith context.
Key Considerations
– Uncertainty and Ambiguity: Faith often involves embracing uncertainty and ambiguity, trusting in a higher power or divine plan.
– Trust and Surrender: Variational preference can be seen as a form of surrender to uncertainty, trusting that God’s plan is greater than our own understanding.
– Flexibility and Adaptability: Faith-oriented decision making often requires flexibility and adaptability, being open to changing circumstances and new insights.
– Seeking Guidance: Variational preference can involve seeking guidance from a higher power or spiritual tradition, rather than relying solely on personal preferences or rational calculation.
Potential Applications
– Discernment: Variational preference can inform the process of discernment, helping individuals to navigate complex decisions and seek guidance from God.
– Trust and Faith: It can foster a deeper trust in God’s sovereignty and provision, even in the face of uncertainty.
– Decision Making: Variational preference can provide a framework for decision making that considers the ambiguity and complexity of real-world situations.
Caveats
– Theological Implications: The application of variational preference to faith-oriented decision making would need to be carefully considered considering specific theological traditions and understandings of God’s nature and character.
– Contextualization: The concept would need to be contextualized and nuanced to fit the specific faith context and community.
By applying variational preference to faith-oriented decision making, individuals may find a more nuanced and realistic approach to navigating the complexities of life, trusting in God’s guidance and provision.
Uncertainty vs. Probability Distributions
Uncertainty is indeed a more realistic model of life, especially when considering long-term goals and decisions. Empirically computed probability distributions often rely on assumptions and simplifications that may not capture the complexity and unpredictability of real-world events.
Key Insights
– Uncertainty is Inherent: Life is inherently uncertain, and probability distributions can only approximate this uncertainty.
– Limitations of Probability: Probability distributions rely on historical data and assumptions, which may not hold true in the future.
– Adaptability is Key: Embracing uncertainty allows for greater adaptability and resilience in the face of changing circumstances.
Implications
– Decision Making: Decision making should consider the uncertainty of outcomes, rather than relying solely on probability distributions.
– Faith and Trust: Embracing uncertainty can foster a deeper trust in God’s sovereignty and provision, even in the face of uncertainty.
Hope and Uncertainty
The belief in outcomes outlined in God’s Word define the hope we have for the future. The journey might appear uncertain or non-transparent but principles and consequences built into the process offer the courage to persevere, endure, become resilient and even experience self-discovery on the way to transformational person and accomplishing fulfilling outcomes in the long haul
The essence of trusting in God’s Word amidst uncertainty is the classic definition of hope. The principles and promises in Scripture provide a foundation for hope and courage, even when the journey ahead is unclear.
Key Insights
– God’s Word as Anchor: Believing in God’s Word and its promises anchors hope for the future.
– Journey of Growth: The journey, though uncertain, becomes a path of growth, resilience, and self-discovery.
– Transformational Outcomes: Trusting in God’s principles leads to transformational outcomes and fulfillment in the long haul.
Concluding Remarks
As we navigate the complexities of life, uncertainty is an inescapable reality. Professor Antony Millner’s research on “Long Run Cost Benefit Rules” offers a valuable perspective on decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the importance of ambiguity aversion and variational preference. By embracing uncertainty and trusting in God’s sovereignty, we can cultivate a deeper sense of hope and resilience.
Key Takeaways
– Uncertainty is inherent in life, and probability distributions can only approximate this uncertainty.
– Variational preference provides a flexible framework for decision making, accommodating different attitudes towards ambiguity and uncertainty.
– Faith-oriented decision making can inform and be informed by Millner’s research, fostering a deeper trust in God’s provision and guidance.
– Embracing uncertainty can lead to growth, resilience, and transformational outcomes.
Isaac Megbolugbe, Director of GIVA Ministries International is focused on empowering believers to embrace a grace-driven life of holiness and obedience, passionately pursuing a deeper relationship with God within the boundaries of His sovereignty, and reflecting Christ’s character in their daily lives. He is retired professor at Johns Hopkins University, member of 2024 Marquis Organization’s Class of Top Executives in the United States of America and a Fellow of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. He is resident in the United States of America.
